So now that youve got an truly immutable public data store, what do you do with it? Bitcoin has its flaws and needs to improve as you mentioned: Unconfirmed BTC transactions already in the 6 digits now. It pays you to do scientific calculation work (that many volunteers already do for nothing) on the BOINC network. January 4, 2018, 2:35 pm. Sure, China is a renewables leader but it has limits. For a shortcut to understanding good investing, you can also simply look up Warren Buffets thinking on almost any topic hes careful enough about offering opinions that by the time he makes a statement on something, you can be pretty sure it will be among the best answers out there. They may settle to much less, or get close to zero, or they may grow more, no one can really predict this. Mr. Money Mustache @mrmoneymustache Follow @mrmoneymustache There's nothing wrong with blockchain technology - as I said in the article. Mr. Money Mustache on Twitter: "I dunno man. You all and Mr. Money Mustache are the ones that are collectively insane as you watch a technology that has the potential to benefit humanity possibly more than anything in history Pass you by as you are too blind in your indoctrinated social normative lenses to ever see the big picture. Like every state currency, it derives its worth out of the fact that the state says you can *always* pay your taxes with it This is a non-sarcastic answer: The same could be said of buying a Powerball ticket every week. The reason Bitcoin has been driven so high is because its a limited supply. All I had to do was sell the integrity of my blog for $100 non-bitcoin bucks (via PayPal of course.) Gotta! Eenvoudig leven . Ideally something not too specific to bitcoin, like I dunno, power equipment? Looks like I made a big mistake then. You guys are sitting in fools paradise if you think anyone would want US dollars in the years to come. Many African countries have central banks. Remember Altavista, Boo, Aol and Geocities, should I have bought those you mean? Assuming you can know the exact price of a commodity on a given day is speculative, yes. It doesnt matter if it goes to $100 trillion per coin or per fingernail the underlying speculation is bullshit, which is why it needs to be stopped. Yeah, Ive discussed the mining with my friend from NVidia. 1) If gold is a bubble, it is a > 5000 year one I put my money where my mouth is! 1 Replies 290 Views February 10, 2023, 05:55:08 AM . The Cryptocurrency bubble is really a replay of the past: A good percentage of Humans are prone to mass delusions which lead to irrational behavior. Vivek Prasannan So we need more credible people to speak out against it. Episode 496: Why Bitcoin is Stupid - Part 1 by Mr. Money Mustache. and we live in the middle of it. Invest in anything wisely and safely. Shiller really just rediscovered it. You know what else they have at bars? Do you really think you own your Fiat paper? A stock is not a ticker symbol; it is a stake in an underlying business. Sounds like a bubble to me. This idea that you HAVE TO OWN ONE FULL BITCOIN is madness. From arranging hits to buying drugs to political corruption. Subsequently, some 70 years later, Im still using that toilet paper to finance my retirement, buy cars, houses and all sorts of things? No one is suggesting that investing in mining is a good idea. There are many prices where gold or tulips are a totally rational purchase. The kids pulverize the bricks to make brick dust, which is the most valuable currency/commodity in their forest kingdom. January 2, 2018, 7:25 pm. Do you have any stats to share? Even with the internet, its only in the last 15 years or so that we have seen companies with seemingly any sort of staying power in the industry. In the field of personal wealth, this means walking your children past the idling lineup of your neighbors Mercedes SUVs, over the snowy grass and up to the door of the school and being confident that you are doing the right thing. Naturally with higher growth comes the risks which you should be ready to deal with. April 2, 2018, 7:38 am. Right now, the only people driving up the price areother speculators. December 10, 2018, 5:45 pm, Dang! 0 transaction fees, infinite scalability, instant transaction times (2-10 seconds), and no mining (aka no ridiculous power consumption). But yes: Bitcoin is silly at current prices. So no, its not a Ponzi or Pyramid scheme, but its no better than taking a spin down the Vegas Strip either. A billion dollar gaming industry creating games worth watching. Consensus over its value. That is the right way to think about these things. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, and maybe everyone that posts here about how wonderful Bitcoin is will be minted a Bitcoin millionaire and will lock in those profits can we remain sane and humble on the other side? BTW, the reason you put a small amount of your money in gold is to hedge against inflation. Holding gold is not an investment in this case, it is a hedge. But from now on, Im going to replace that sob story with this: Man, I missed out on MMM fingernail clippings! to remind myself of the absurdity of that imagined sunk cost Ive burdened myself with. And you dont want it for this purpose anyway after all, do you currentlyhide your money in offshore tax havens and transact your business on black markets? Bitcoin is a case study, and they have no idea (or choose not to believe) that theyre headed for the unfortunate future footnotes of that case. I am not trying to promote it for this purpose, but it is not an invalid choice. January 3, 2018, 12:13 pm. You invested in GBTC? Feel free to throw in some early questions. If you want a proper Blockchain, then it has to be decentralised and a Public ledger where multiple computers across the globe validate and keep it secure, and we already have Bitcoin for that which already has the necessary network effect, the developer ecosystem and helluva lot of miners. Also, it is meaningless to create a Private Blockchain, as you can achieve the same thing using your existing oracle database without unnecessarily replicating transactions in multiple servers. Do I still get the full bag or just a portion of your pinky fingers latest clipping? As far as Im concerned, this is the final word on Bitcoin. And if immutability isnt necessary for your use case, just use a database and save yourself the headache. (I may buy some to pay my day to day expenses, but I try to minimize the %age of my net worth sitting in cash. So theres a positive feedback loop here. How much do you have invested in BTC? November 20, 2018, 12:00 pm, so other storage is NOT needed sorry, my phone likes to randomly delete words, Tor Kristen Haugen All these ICOs are just insane. January 2, 2018, 8:53 pm. ): the Problem with calling Bitcoin a Ponzi Scheme. You keep talking about transactions needed for it to be a currency but fail to mention in your article that Lightning Network is in the works to address this very problem. FirstPrincipleThinking Bitcoin is not a bubble, its the pin :), Not looking so good right now The internet. And the digital assets which are currently little more than digital currencies no one uses will be required to process and write data to the public blockchains. Because I advocate something, I am not raving Mad! On the other hand, if youre cool with allowing remote-controlled robots to kill 3rd world women and children in your name, then keep using only US Dollars. Furthermore, I would like to emphasize that for Bitcoin (used here to refer to generic cyrptocurrencies) to become useful in an everyday sense, I would never need to change out of Bitcoin and into another currency, such as USD. What is the US Dollar pegged to? > what is the fundamental reason that existing currencies have been driven up so high? January 3, 2018, 12:58 pm. By exchanging dollars or euros for a fee? I mentioned very specific problems with BTC/ETH. What scared me away was basically the energy costs of mining, and knowing that, even if cryptos became huge, there was no reason Bitcoin in particular would have have any value in excess of the electricity that I spent to get it. The only reason the dollar is working as money is because it started out with gold backing and then they gradually removed the backing. Some of them may be insane purchases at some prices and very sane purchases at other prices. Even though it really is nothing but cyber reality. There used to be cool arbitrage opportunities on a website called purse.io, where you could buy amazon products for a discount using bitcoin but transaction fees have made those types of business models (temporarily?) Anyway, if your argument were correctwhich it partially isthen you of all people should be against fiat money systems like the US dollar in its current form. Come back after a couple of years to this blog and let us see who is vindicated! I for one am lucky enough to participate in the birthing of an alternative financial paradigm so that people have choices. But I suppose its money well spent if the bitcoin mining conglomerate is behind it. =. I'm sure this had nothing to do with their personal stake in the outcome." This will go down in history as the DUMBEST thing Mr. Money Mustache has ever written.it honestly pisses me off how dishonest he is and his he cant see the big picture out of his Statist status quo lenses. Mr. Money Mustache Early Retirement through Badassity Start Here About Random MMM Recommends Forum MMM Classics Mr. Money Mustache View: Fancy Magazine | Classic Blog Welcome New Readers! Research further. One of the 3 points MMM stated it needs. Bill Batchelor Seeing ATMs shows that it is slowly on the cusp of becoming more widely adapted and accepted. All that the US has done since 2008, is hit the ball further and further down the road while at the same time blowing it more and more with air (read Quantitative Easing). People are genuinely mad at me for calling out this speculative aspect (note that I did not criticize blockchain at all, just the idea of uninformed people betting on future price increases for the arbitrary coins). With BTC, how would a nation function and have institutions that protect its people? http://whattomine.com/ im not some conspiracy theorist but I do see the value in a global decentralized currency (none of which is tax evasion btw, Every major exchange currently advises and provides you with a modified 1099-INT for you to file taxes, the IRS as well recognizes bitcoin as owning property and implicated short/long term taxes for owners). Back in its heyday, BTC was incredibly valuable for making monetary transactions (essentially anytime before this recent mania clogged up the blocks). November 20, 2018, 11:56 am. Staying on the sidelines unless you have some special knowledge of when exactly the the bubble will pop. Not the only reason, but if earnings dont pan out, stock prices wont necessarily drop. Might want to polish that up before going public again. Vijay how can it be a useful currency without a relatively stable value? I think that the short history of bitcoin teaches us just how challenging prediction can be in these technologies. Bitcoins arent duplicable, your fingernails could be replaced by other fingernails and nobody would notice unless they do a mass spectrometry. Don't look at prices, look at relative prices. But consider some things that will live up the hype.. like improved immunotherapies for cancer or Crisprs ability to cheaply edit DNA line by line. Blockchain (you are the first person I read who thinks the jury is still out on blockchain (I agree)) takes more and more energy as it grows. The truly irrational. Not only stocks, but real estate and bonds are expensive as well. This is not characteristic of a healthy financial system (particularly so many years into a global recovery), but rather a zombie one thats been artificially propped up since the financial crisis. But since the formula is open and free, other companies would quickly come out with their own cancer pills. Long time reader, first time commenter (ha). Problems that dont bother your average North American, but could be very valuable to many people the world over. I know, when you received hundreds of emails eventually you just have to buckle and say, Okay, damn it I will write it up. Whatever they are willing to pay to enjoy owning these things themselves is their business, and may make for a fairly rational purchase. If you accept for the purpose of argument that Bitcoin has value to the world, then its essentually a land rush to get as much of it as you can while its cheap. Every day when I go online, Ill see updates, news or discussion about Bitcoin and the craze it has created whether its on YouTube, blogs, or mainstream news. This puts USD straight into the bank the Federal Goverment and allows paying of debt. Retweeted. EvoInvestor Bitcoin (aka CancerPills) has become an investment bubble, with the complementary forces of Human herd behavior, greed, fear of missing out, and a lack of understanding of past financial bubbles amplifying it. If you're like most Americans, you're a few . Why not somebody elses fingernail clippings? Lot of your readers seem to be people who have never even stepped out of their home towns or this continent, and think the World is the US! Maybe you are suggesting that in the future Bitcoin will be just as good or better than Fiat, but thats speculation. Also, for the first time in history, it will soon be possible to make millions of sub-cent transactions efficiently without any significant fees. , Umm, you do know that only about half of the worlds population even has access to the internet, right? Your entire new medium of exchange is part of the black market. El Penguin MentalArson January 15, 2018, 9:20 am. I could definitely sell these for more later. I am broadly in agreement with what you state, except the part where you think USD would not get replaced soon (depends on what soon is of course). However when every Joe on the street becomes an expert in an assetthen its suspect and you dont need to be clairvoyant to know that this will not end well. Tom expressed an argument that separating the technology from this particular implementation is important, and offered his opinion that the future blockchain implementations might be none of the current ones on the market. No difference there. When someone has a 180 degree different opinion to you, just discredit them eh? In stating that humans have never had a chance to own their own money you have hit on the essential problem with bitcoin and any other monetary alternative. The real winners of the gold rush were the ones who sold shovels. Bitcoins can be traced, your fingernails cant. Bitcoin dropped 20% overnight, so it is not currently a very reliable store of value. And this, MMM There are no financial instruments that will protect you from a world where we no longer trust each other. Plus, it costs something like $20 per transaction. I think your point about time wasted is very accurate. But coincidentally, after I got my computer engineering degree I ended up specializing in security and encryption technologies for most of my career. Then Ill stick with what works for me now. These units run circles around the baddest gaming PC with 6 graphics cards in terms of performance, but they are noisy and not a good room heater for anyone with Ok hearing. Mr. Money Mustache Second: Human nature actually tolerates a *lot* of corruption in exchange to stability, so I dont think well be switching over to this science fair project any time soon. When the US dropped the gold standard it allowed the government to print paper that we perceive is valuable without any actually commodity to back it. Hell isnt that why we are here in the first place? Also if youre going to start the whole not everywhere is like the U.S. argument, then do you think a third world farmer growing coffee beans is going to want Starbucks zapping some btc to his iPhone to pay him? I invested and I am sitting pretty with my finances, where are you my friend? Very good article! You cannot have blockchain without bitcoin. It is too inefficient to scale to become a global currency, too volatile to be practical as a global currency, and there is a cap to how many bitcoins can be made therefore no reason to ever spend your bitcoin. Speculation of these underlying earnings is what often pushes stock prices higher. Yeah, IF YOU SHOUT LIKE THIS IT MAKES YOUR POINT COMPLETELY VALID. Will it get me my money faster? Even as these banks show SKY-HIGH PROFITS, they mostly evade their share of tax via loopholes. Ive been trying to think of an entrepreneurial way to capitalize on the hysteria without investing in it. One book that I found very useful in understanding the greed-fear cycle (and Central Banking and the Federal Reserve system to boot) is the 2001 classic Towards Rational Exuberance by Mark Smith. Blockchain is simply a nifty software invention (which is open-source and free for anyone to use), whereas bitcoin is just one well-known way to use it. May be we should look at bitcoin as a product, who knows what are the other innovative ways that may come up for making more returns out of it like any product today. This Vice article explains yet another ridiculous aspect of Cryptocurrency: running the transaction network (called Mining) involves a deliberate computer-intensive crypto challenge syetem called proof of work. Electricity is the least of the problems, especially in an era where renewables are replacing conventional power everywhere. Even the USD was a deflationary currency till the 60s after which Nixon got it out of the gold standard. If you could have somehow monetised the Internet in 1992 and sold it, imagine how rich you would be right now? It is happening, slowly but none the less all three of your issues should be gone within 5 years). I have no issue with the block chain. WHY??? One of my coworkers at MMM-HQ works for nVidia, and part of his job is hunting down mining thieves who comandeer virtual servers (cloud computing) to mine coins on their behalf. Sure speculate, but this is not going to be the future as it stands now. It's natural to just look at the price itself and how much it's . In fiat currency the car is valued at $41,940, but 18 days later, the car is valued at $31,850. Fiat currency fluctuates too, but its swings are smaller as a percentage of its total market cap. Because the banking system is corrupt and big government cant watch over it? Redirecting to /r/mrmoneymustache/comments/mz1sma/thoughts_on_mmm_why_bitcoin_is_stupid/h094ynt (308) However, taking a very small gamble doesnt hurt 99% is invested in s&p 500 and that will remain like that :). (You couldnt type to me on a computer or launch a satellite into space without it.). This is the most blasphemous thing ever to be written by MMM. January 3, 2018, 9:23 am. (Serious question. . . With governments coming on board, digital cash will stop money laundering and all these bad things Bitcoin has been associated with. Fiat, at least from most major industrialised nations, is less volatile for one thing. Tulips anyone? I find that they either admit that the herd behavior is ridiculous, or they skirt around that topic, citing the returns as being a good thing. But if it goes down, I wont put anymore money into it. rollie fingers I'm a software engineer and my career was in cryptography and network security. A wisened Mustachian looks for long term, steady gains, and their invested dollars add value to a society the moment they are employed. This is why bitcoin was created in the first place. A boy named Sue January 11, 2018, 12:03 am. Everything thats happening in the crypto space is just so normal as you would expect investors struggling to get the price right for something beyond the control of regulation. Cmon, only wealthy people evade taxes in amounts that would matter & theres a cottage industry made of tax lawyers doing just that for them. Its diversification. This is where the speculating comes in. Do something useful with your money. I am of the opinion all of Fiat will get wiped out in a decade or two! January 5, 2018, 1:18 pm, Right and this entire blog is my personal quest to nudge the worlds collective opinions such that ppl value more of the same things I do. And wasnt Apple Pay and all these other card-less apps of paying for goods and services supposed to replace carrying around a physical wallet and/or cash? Absolutely! About purse.io: Do you have to pay the transaction fee to deposit the BTC to escrow? This way, whichever direction GBTC goes, you wont be in a regretful situation. It can be forged. FOMO! Most people cant afford to drop huge amounts in crypto at one time, so you have college kids paying $2-3 every week buying $50 worth of BTC. I agree with Tawcan. Personally i feel that the USD is rapidly approaching hyperinflation. Which is fine, but this trust-less nature of Bitcoin is what the early adopters valued. Bitcoin didnt fly off the charts until a couple of months ago, after (maybe) finding itself in the perfect storm to take a bubble to biblical proportions. I argue that fiat currency is inefficient because its supply is always increasing. In order to have decentralization, there needs to be an incentive for people to commit resources to running the network. According to the index, the amount of energy consumed by mining bitcoin surged about 26 percent in November alone and now totals nearly 36 terawatt hours, enough energy to power about 3.3 million homes. Im only a mediocre computer scientist. When the internet / electric / grid is down, I cant pay him via my iphone and at the moment, the kid wants cash. Incredible comment. Im not going to break the bank, but it sure is fun to be part of giving the world the choice to trust the network when the human institutions have failed. So when I invest in bitcoin, Im not betting that itll replace dollars anytime soon. January 2, 2018, 5:53 pm, Dear Mr. Mustache, I am so sorry you had to write this at all. Meanwhile in China there are multiple football fields sized bitcoin farms. I cant help but feel that a big part of the reason for Bitcoins continued rise is that theres no safe, practical way for us Bitcoin-skeptics to actually take a short position on it. https://www.statista.com/statistics/326707/bitcoin-price-index/. Nothing is 100% guaranteed in life. The underlying value of stocks are tangible assets and value added production activities. In my opinion crypto prices are ahead of their real use value today as they factor in the potential. It is also an opportunity to get the 2 Billion unbanked people on the planet to also enjoy a level playing field through this new Internet of Money. Let it get to 10 Trillion + in a couple or so years and then you come back talking about its stability! Ask me Anything! February 13, 2018, 5:35 pm. The sooner we debunk the myth and come to our senses, the richer our world will be. Jay Holden It has been made ground up to be censorship resistant and has been thriving for past 8 years despite singular opposition from every quarter. I completely agree, investing in Bitcoin is JUST like investing in lottery tickets. So yes, blockchain = good bitcoin=maybe? Just think never having to get ripped off for currency exchange10 years from now. Those Adults you referred to in your article had the trust and lost it with their actions. The First Attack In 2012, I invited Pete and his wife to share a guest post on Financial Samurai when he was starting out called: Early Retirement: It's Not As Risky As You Might Think. as long as people in their consciousness believe it is a store of value it is. I also invested in a bitcoin two years ago, and paid off all my debt with it. I dont know that page very good, but I think that answers this question ;). However, in 2004 when Facebook was being launched it was looked at as a funny little friend site. MMM has been writing quality PF content for years. Bitcoin 2.0 is already here, people just dont know it yet. Devs in their mid 20s who owe the IRS 50k and lost most everything. Westerners will not see the benefit for sometime as we have no purpose ourselves for bitcoin but once it becomes a single global currency that can be used in every shop of the world then everyone will be holding bitcoin. If the currency is highly valued, he would do well to keep hold of it! I dislike all this vitriol given to speculators when they are fully valuable members of an economic system. The potential upside outweighs the risk of the initial cost. Anyway, what would he dump it for? LennStar Gold may be irrational, if you insist that it is. To most of the Internet, Mr. Money Mustache is known as the quirky early retirement financial guy, and this is a blog about Money. If they had money in gold they could have mitigated some of the affects of the politicians and bureaucrats in those countries (and the IMF). So, I harvest other peoples speculation and I dont lose anything, as I have already harvested more than what I put in. MMM says: There is no intrinsic value in cryptocurrencies. January 5, 2018, 12:35 pm. It will NEVER happen. A bitcoin is not an investment, just as. Places like Singapore, Estonia, Switzerland appear to already working on converting their systems to digital cash. As has the MMM investing sub-furum. Things arent as crazy as 2000, but this is the 2nd highest peak of all time. I just wish it had come out before the holidays so I could have just pointed family members to it instead of attempting (unsuccessfully!) Besides, theres value in bitcoin, like with gold or a comic book, or any other item people assign a value to. If you cant grasp the difference between the two, then by all means sink your capital into crypto-currencies as they are currently valued. (based on July 20th blog post) Started by caracarn. Thats almost the opposite of how hydroelectric dams work (I did a couple years of power research in Quebec, which also has massive dams). Ive been thinking of doing just that.. And then I put it off for a few weeks, and the price jumps up exponentially. I agree w jon. Please dont take the Proof of Work Blockchain like Bitcoins as the Blockchain. Evidently you werent invested in Pets.com and other rising stars with no hope of ever getting profitable. Is having 1-2% of my overall portfolio in cryptocurrency stupid? No, not to me. Cryptos appear to be the latest mania and in its current form will most certainly suffer the fate of the other manias that have happened in the past. Currency might be the smallest part of that, in the way that web and streaming video traffic dwarf simple email traffic. I linked to Aswath Damodarans video on my Bitcoin post also. Very interesting. Perhaps us libertarian believers are wrong, and this can be maintained indefinitely. After all, the ONLY thing that gives a fiat money its value is what someone else is willing to give you for it. Reward for Risk is worse for Powerball. The problem with most folks here is, if you really want to know Bitcoin you have to Know Computing to really appreciate what this is all about. Shorting bitcoin would just be speculation in the opposite direction. Its a win-win situation. January 3, 2018, 7:23 am. 1) Energy consumption Bitcoin consumes a massive amount of energy to secure the network. It makes you want to laugh and cry. That is what has happened twice this century already, and could very well happen again. The short answer is they can do nothing about it! TO_Ont But it is a valuation technique that goes back practically as long as there have been stock markets.). document.getElementById( "ak_js_1" ).setAttribute( "value", ( new Date() ).getTime() ); Take a look around. January 3, 2018, 3:18 pm, It has the most powerful force in human history behind it: Mathematics. No shame in that, maybe keep an open mind and try to have a discussion where we all learn something. 15 Replies 10705 Views March 26, 2020, 05:23:27 PM . My Take: Cryptocurrencies have A LOT of problems currently. I dont know if stock prices will go down. Read Warren Buffets books. Thats crazy. For the first time in history, a machine can own money and make its own purchases. All govermnents will not sit idly by and loose all their power worldwide. Alright then, do you have all your money invested in cryptocurrencies? If it goes poorly you might not a few months off your FIRE date but if it goes very well it could knock off a year. Of course there is value in regulations, too. I dont see any other motive behind this article other than a biased effort to please someone, especially with the choice of words used like stupid, ridiculous, holy shit as if everyone who parked 700 billion on crypto belong to an alien species. The general trend seems to be accusing me of not doing enough research, even after I dug into this stuff pretty deeply for a long, long time. So I did learn a bit about locking and unlocking information, hacking, and ensuring that independent brains (whether they are two adjacent CPUs on a circuit board or two companies negotiating across the Pacific) can trust each other and coordinate their actions in lockstep. Because reasons, technology and internet! If I add your state debt and unfunded liabilities, US is BANKRUPT! However EVERY SINGLE BITCOIN TRANSACTION IS PERMANENTLY RECORDED AND TRACEABLE. ), bastringue Making government efficient and effective for the people is noble as well. 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Please dont take the Proof of work Blockchain like bitcoins as the Blockchain am sitting pretty with my,! It. ) valuation technique that goes back practically as long as people their. Bitcoins as the Blockchain final word on bitcoin mostly evade their share tax! $ 31,850 teaches us just how challenging prediction can be in these technologies to give you for it... Like with gold backing and then they gradually removed the backing the bubble will pop state and. For it. ) things arent as crazy as 2000, but could be replaced by other fingernails and would! Over a period of almost ten years I invested and I am not trying to promote for! The potential upside outweighs the risk of the opinion all of fiat will get out... Arranging hits to buying drugs to political corruption is what has happened twice this century,! Pets.Com and other rising stars with no hope of ever getting profitable prices are ahead of their use. 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